The Vision Document signed by then Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during Wickremesinghe’s visit to New Delhi on July 20-21, 2023, was hailed as a cornerstone for strengthening India-Sri Lanka ties. While celebrated by the media and policymakers, a closer look reveals that many of its proposals are not new and face significant viability challenges.
Overview of the Vision Document
The Vision Document outlines several key areas of cooperation aimed at deepening bilateral relations and fostering regional connectivity. Key proposals include:
- Maritime and Air Connectivity
- Development of ports and logistics infrastructure at Colombo, Trincomalee, and Kankesanthurai to boost regional trade and logistics.
- Resumption of flights between Jaffna and Chennai, with expanded connections to Colombo and other Sri Lankan destinations like Trincomalee and Batticaloa.
- Exploration of a long-discussed ferry service between the two nations.
- Energy Cooperation
- Joint development of Trincomalee as a hub for energy and industrial activities.
- Construction of a multi-product petroleum pipeline connecting southern India to Sri Lanka.
- Collaboration on offshore hydrocarbon exploration and production in Sri Lanka.
- People-to-People Connectivity
- Proposal for a land bridge connecting India and Sri Lanka to facilitate travel and trade.
- Feasibility studies for developing such connectivity, with potential long-term plans for implementation.
- Economic and Tourism Growth
- Acceleration of joint projects in tourism, trade, and economic development to enhance mutual prosperity.
Ambitious Proposals or Overstated Plans?
The Vision Document aims to address longstanding gaps in India-Sri Lanka relations. However, many of its proposals have been discussed for years, often stalling due to financial, technical, or political challenges.
1. Port and Logistics Infrastructure
The development of Colombo, Trincomalee, and Kankesanthurai ports has been a focal point of discussions for decades. While India has already established a strategic foothold in Colombo and has ongoing projects in Trincomalee, the realization of these plans has often been delayed by logistical hurdles and political shifts.
2. Resumption of Air Connectivity
The conversion of Jaffna International Airport into an operational hub was a $12 million project initiated in 2019. However, the airport has seen limited success, serving only 12,000 passengers as of mid-2023, primarily from Jaffna. The viability of additional airports in Trincomalee or Batticaloa remains questionable given Sri Lanka’s economic challenges and debt burdens.
3. Land Bridge and Energy Pipeline
The proposed land bridge between India and Sri Lanka, a high-profile initiative, faces significant feasibility and cost issues. Historical comparisons, such as Russia's $3.7 billion Crimean Bridge, suggest that constructing a similar bridge in the Palk Strait could be exponentially more expensive, with unclear economic benefits.
Energy connectivity has been a recurring topic, but plans for a petroleum pipeline and joint offshore exploration require substantial investment and expertise that neither country has fully demonstrated.
Challenges in Implementation
- Financial Constraints
- Sri Lanka’s current economic crisis limits its ability to take on large infrastructure projects, raising concerns about further debt accumulation.
- Cost-sharing mechanisms for large-scale projects like the land bridge and pipeline remain undefined.
- Technical Expertise
- Both nations lack experience in executing massive infrastructure projects, such as the proposed land bridge.
- The longest bridge in India, the Dhola Sadiya Bridge, spans only 9.1 kilometers—much shorter than the envisioned land bridge.
- Political Sensitivities
- Regional and domestic politics influence the feasibility of such projects. For example, Tamil Nadu’s reaction to increased connectivity with Sri Lanka may affect India’s political will to move forward.
Behind the Aspirations: Economic Drivers
While the Vision Document outlines lofty goals, its practical success hinges on the involvement of private players. During Wickremesinghe’s visit, he met Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, whose investments in Sri Lanka align with India’s broader economic ambitions. Adani’s strategic interest in projects like Colombo Port’s East Container Terminal underscores how business interests often drive bilateral projects.
Comparison with China’s Belt and Road Initiative
India’s Vision Document mirrors China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in some respects, emphasizing connectivity, infrastructure, and energy collaboration. However, unlike the BRI, which has seen significant implementation in Sri Lanka, many Indian-led projects have struggled to move beyond planning stages, highlighting gaps in execution and financing.
Public Perception and Reality
Vision statements often serve as symbolic gestures rather than actionable plans. They aim to project cooperation and progress to the public and media, while the actual implementation rests on business deals and bureaucratic negotiations. Many seasoned political analysts view these documents as aspirational rather than realistic.
Conclusion
The India-Sri Lanka Vision Document is a testament to the enduring partnership between the two nations and highlights areas of mutual interest. However, its effectiveness depends on addressing financial, technical, and political hurdles. Without actionable steps and sustained commitment, the proposals may remain unrealized, serving more as diplomatic rhetoric than a roadmap for tangible progress. For now, all eyes are on the December visit of Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake to see if he can reinvigorate these plans or chart a new path forward.
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